Adaptive Management (E-Posters Presentations)
Tracks
S. João Room
Thursday, May 18, 2023 |
2:30 PM - 4:00 PM |
E-Poster Presentations |
Speaker
Ms Shelby Corning
International Institute Of Applied Systems Analysis
Chair
Biography
Shelby Corning is a researcher at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and a master's student in European forestry at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) in Vienna, Austria and University of Eastern Finland (UEF) in Joensuu, Finland. She received a bachelor's degree in environmental sciences from the University of Rochester in New York, USA. Her research is on wildfire risk and climate adaptation modeling, and the use of machine learning, remote sensing and cloud computing technology in forest disturbance detection. She's interested in wildfires, forest disturbances, and resource management in the context of climate change.
Miss Fiona Newman Thacker
PhD candidate
Wageningen University And Research
PP100 - “Mitigation, Adaptation or Suffering” in relation to Wildland Fire
Abstract
Wildland fire events are becoming more widespread and impactful across the globe. In this study, we explore how three components; mitigation, adaptation and suffering, are related to wildfire events. Originating from climate science, the idea that we must mitigate and adapt to wildfires to avoid suffering is a pertinent one. Within this research we focus predominantly on adaptation; understanding that to lean on the idea of mitigation may feed into maladaptive suppressive techniques To understand what types of suffering can be associated with wildfires, we establish seven themes of suffering, acknowledging both anthropogenic and environmental aspects. The themes are global in scope; not designed for one region or particular fire. Looking to establish ways of reducing suffering and moving towards living with fire, we propose seven adaptation principles that can help society move forward; three global and four local. Using two case studies, the Las Maquinas fire in Chile (2017) and the Fort McMurray fire in Canada (2016), we explore what suffering can be associated with these events, and how the adaptation principles we have established could help reduce such suffering.
Biography
Fiona is a second year PhD student within the Innovative Training Network Pyrolife, funded by a Horizon 2020 grant. Her topic is fire resilient landscapes. Her research is primarily focussed in Europe, and how we can prepare our landscapes for future wildfire risk.
Juan José Fernández
INFOCAM / JCCM
PP101 - How demographic changes impact on wildfire regime
Abstract
Objectives
The main goal is to analyze and assess how both demographic and forest structure changes modify wildfire regime in terms of number of fires and forest area affected in Castilla-La Mancha region (Spain).
Methods
Advanced geographic information systems analysis (geostatistical analysis) allows to identify which factors have stronger relationship with number of fires and burnt forest area trends. Research use data from National Forest Inventory to assess fuel spatial connectivity and demographic data from Spanish National Statistical Institute.
Results
Whereas there is no significative relationship between demographic change and wildfire regimes in terms of number of fires and burnt forest area, there is a strong relationship between burn forest area and forest connectivity. Loss population does not mean burnt forest area increase directly. Nevertheless, a forest connectivity increasing due to changes in land use could affect wildfire regime by increasing forest size average.
Conclusions
Areas where a loss of population results on loss of agroforestry activity may increase burnt forest area. Thus, forestry policies should consider forest connectivity in order to prevent large fires, as well as to limit fire potential delineations.
The main goal is to analyze and assess how both demographic and forest structure changes modify wildfire regime in terms of number of fires and forest area affected in Castilla-La Mancha region (Spain).
Methods
Advanced geographic information systems analysis (geostatistical analysis) allows to identify which factors have stronger relationship with number of fires and burnt forest area trends. Research use data from National Forest Inventory to assess fuel spatial connectivity and demographic data from Spanish National Statistical Institute.
Results
Whereas there is no significative relationship between demographic change and wildfire regimes in terms of number of fires and burnt forest area, there is a strong relationship between burn forest area and forest connectivity. Loss population does not mean burnt forest area increase directly. Nevertheless, a forest connectivity increasing due to changes in land use could affect wildfire regime by increasing forest size average.
Conclusions
Areas where a loss of population results on loss of agroforestry activity may increase burnt forest area. Thus, forestry policies should consider forest connectivity in order to prevent large fires, as well as to limit fire potential delineations.
Biography
Forestry engineer and fire science Master. Specialized in forest fire behaviour analysis.
Dr Eric Kennedy
York University
PP102 - What's the Point? Reflecting on Goals & Evaluation in Wildfire Management
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
On the surface, wildfire management seems to have very clear goals: to protect life and property while preventing fire. However, there is increasing realization that fire management is much more complex: some fire is desirable, some suppression can be more problematic than useful, and some quantitative metrics can be overly simplistic. Yet, for many agencies, institutional structures - such as identified performance indicators, key metrics, and evaluation regimes - can make it challenging to adopt more holistic management goals and practices. In this presentation, we examine the current state of metrics and evaluation in fire management organizations, and consider alternatives for better capturing the holistic and complex objectives of modern fire managers.
METHODS
First, we review the historical context of the shift from simple and heavily quantified objectives to more holistic ambitions of fire management. Second, we conduct a review looking at the published metrics and objectives shared by agencies in Canada, identifying the commonalities and range of metrics articulated. In doing so, we can identify ways in which evaluation regimes can help - or hinder - the transformation towards a more holistic approach to fire management.
RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS
We identify broad patterns of continuing over-emphasis on quantified metrics (e.g., area burned, resources used, structures lost, etc) alongside opportunities to grow with respect to more subtle measures (e.g., quality of fire, alignment with management objectives, ecosystem or cultural impact, etc). We also identify opportunities for improved agility in updating evaluation regimes based on emerging science (e.g., smoke exposure).
On the surface, wildfire management seems to have very clear goals: to protect life and property while preventing fire. However, there is increasing realization that fire management is much more complex: some fire is desirable, some suppression can be more problematic than useful, and some quantitative metrics can be overly simplistic. Yet, for many agencies, institutional structures - such as identified performance indicators, key metrics, and evaluation regimes - can make it challenging to adopt more holistic management goals and practices. In this presentation, we examine the current state of metrics and evaluation in fire management organizations, and consider alternatives for better capturing the holistic and complex objectives of modern fire managers.
METHODS
First, we review the historical context of the shift from simple and heavily quantified objectives to more holistic ambitions of fire management. Second, we conduct a review looking at the published metrics and objectives shared by agencies in Canada, identifying the commonalities and range of metrics articulated. In doing so, we can identify ways in which evaluation regimes can help - or hinder - the transformation towards a more holistic approach to fire management.
RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS
We identify broad patterns of continuing over-emphasis on quantified metrics (e.g., area burned, resources used, structures lost, etc) alongside opportunities to grow with respect to more subtle measures (e.g., quality of fire, alignment with management objectives, ecosystem or cultural impact, etc). We also identify opportunities for improved agility in updating evaluation regimes based on emerging science (e.g., smoke exposure).
Biography
Dr. Eric Kennedy is an Associate Professor of Disaster & Emergency Management at York University, where he teaches on and researches issues related to emergency planning, preparedness, response, and research methods. He also serves as Associate Director of York University’s newly-launched Emergency Mitigation, Engagement, Response, and Governance Institute (Y-EMERGE). His work focuses on the human and social dimensions of wildfire, and how we can use policy and institutions to create more resilient futures.
Gilberto Vaz
ISEC-Instituto Politécnico de Coimbra
PP103 - Fire forestry accidents in Galicia
Abstract
During the last twenty years both Spain and Portugal had a lot of forest fire accidents. In this study, non-airborne occupational accidents of workers involved in the extinction of forest fires were analyze aiming to propose recommendations to try to reduce the number of accidents and their severity.
A database of accidents that occurred from 2008 to 2020 in Galicia, provided by the ISSGA (Galician Health and Safety Institute) was analyzed and statistical results were determined, namely the dependence between the involved variables.
A contextualization of fatal accidents was made, as well as a survey of the ages of all the workers in a district and the level of aging of the crews and forestry agents were determined.
As main conclusions, it was observed that the districts with high accident rate are located in the south of Galicia and that there is no greater severity in the accidents in which the crews travel outside their district.
As recommendations, it is recommended that any type of worker should not work alone during firefighting. Also, the medical tests of the workers should be more specific to identify cardiovascular diseases or any other disease incompatible with firefighting work. Finally, the workers who manifest cardiovascular diseases or elderly should not carry out firefighting work and their economic conditions should be kept.
A database of accidents that occurred from 2008 to 2020 in Galicia, provided by the ISSGA (Galician Health and Safety Institute) was analyzed and statistical results were determined, namely the dependence between the involved variables.
A contextualization of fatal accidents was made, as well as a survey of the ages of all the workers in a district and the level of aging of the crews and forestry agents were determined.
As main conclusions, it was observed that the districts with high accident rate are located in the south of Galicia and that there is no greater severity in the accidents in which the crews travel outside their district.
As recommendations, it is recommended that any type of worker should not work alone during firefighting. Also, the medical tests of the workers should be more specific to identify cardiovascular diseases or any other disease incompatible with firefighting work. Finally, the workers who manifest cardiovascular diseases or elderly should not carry out firefighting work and their economic conditions should be kept.
Biography
Coordinator Professor at Polytechnic Institute of Coimbra / Coimbra Institute of Engineering - Mechanical Engineering Department, responsible for the scientific area of heat transfer since 2004. He has a PhD in Mechanical Engineering, at the University of Coimbra, in May of 2002. Gilberto Vaz has been working in the area of Forest Fires at ADAI since 1992, with emphasis in the areas of fire behaviour modelling, fire safety and heat transfer in fires. He has also developed research work in the areas of urban fires, heat transfer, energy efficiency, renewable energy and microcogeneration.
Mr. Felipe Alarcon
WildfireFT
PP104 - Education for Communities and Local Administrations. Introducing and Understanding a Circular Model about How to Live with Fire.
Abstract
Objective:
To introduce a proposal under a circular model involving a permanent and constant process focusing in education and considering then intervention, prevention and emergency response, engaging three big groups: communities, local administrations and responder groups, everything under a common climate denominator.
Method:
Open methodology with a generic composition ready to homologate and implement anywhere with the local and current situation, offering a clear pathway for stakeholders.
Results:
Created in pandemic, the model has been proved with communities, local administrations and response groups by areas, the proper standardization and the respective transversality with its local issues are the principal indicators.
Conclusions:
The current lack of methodologies expressed in real solutions for most of persons in the world are calling for an alternative easy to understand and implement to contribute to adaptation and mitigation, determined by climate change. Fire is an important tool when it is under control, in opposition, when this is out of control, the landscape is modified in minutes. So inverting the situation, what about if communities efforts are focusing on things before they happen? From a fire tribune, we can find answers and solutions for current problematics today (depending on the regions) like: disasters, green urbanism, wildland, landscaping, contamination (emissions and neutralization), droughts, food solutions, agriculture, farming, etc.
This circular model has been recognized by the Global Fire Monitoring Center, it counts with support from different professionals in the world, in Chile Mr. Herbert Haltenhoff and the model is currently working in Chile, Costa Rica and Guatemala.
To introduce a proposal under a circular model involving a permanent and constant process focusing in education and considering then intervention, prevention and emergency response, engaging three big groups: communities, local administrations and responder groups, everything under a common climate denominator.
Method:
Open methodology with a generic composition ready to homologate and implement anywhere with the local and current situation, offering a clear pathway for stakeholders.
Results:
Created in pandemic, the model has been proved with communities, local administrations and response groups by areas, the proper standardization and the respective transversality with its local issues are the principal indicators.
Conclusions:
The current lack of methodologies expressed in real solutions for most of persons in the world are calling for an alternative easy to understand and implement to contribute to adaptation and mitigation, determined by climate change. Fire is an important tool when it is under control, in opposition, when this is out of control, the landscape is modified in minutes. So inverting the situation, what about if communities efforts are focusing on things before they happen? From a fire tribune, we can find answers and solutions for current problematics today (depending on the regions) like: disasters, green urbanism, wildland, landscaping, contamination (emissions and neutralization), droughts, food solutions, agriculture, farming, etc.
This circular model has been recognized by the Global Fire Monitoring Center, it counts with support from different professionals in the world, in Chile Mr. Herbert Haltenhoff and the model is currently working in Chile, Costa Rica and Guatemala.
Biography
Felipe Alarcón
Bachelor's degree in Education, he has a strong experience in International Education and creating solutions for Responder Groups in matter of occupational health, training and standards. Also he has training as a Wildland Firefighter acting and influencing from a climate tribune. Today he is pursuing a master's degree in Climate Change.
Herbert Haltenhoff
Retired as the National Chief of the Department of Wildfire Prevention, for CONAF (National Forestry Corporation, Chile). He has a wide range of skills including fire suppression, prescribed fire, risk management, WUI community wildfire prevention, communications (especially in Spanish), policy and HR.
Ana Violato Espada
U.S. Forest Service International Programs Brazil
PP105 - Firstindige nous women volunteer wildland fire brigade in Brazil: From spectators to effective agents of integrated fire management
Abstract
Greater efforts to include both indigenous communities and women in integrated fire management can bring insights to integrated fire management. However, women are commonly discriminated against in the hypermasculine culture documented within wildfire management. We sought to present the case of the Xerente indigenous women working as volunteer firefighters in a savanna ecosystem transitioning to the Amazon rainforest. 2021, twenty-nine women created the first women-only indigenous volunteer wildland fire brigade prompting a landmark for all indigenous women in Brazil. Based on a singular case study design, we collected data from in-depth interviews, document analysis, and participant observation. We found that fire management training and new technical skills acquired led the Xerente women to go beyond fire suppression within the Xerente Indigenous Land in Brazil. The Xerente women became effective agents in climate action strategies, particularly those related to environmental education connecting efforts of Prevfogo/Ibama with the understanding of the villages about integrated fire management. Also, these women were crucial to implement restoration activities and strengthen food security as they collected seeds and produced local plant seedling species. Implications of this case include pioneer initiative in the Brazilian context in shifting gender roles in a male-dominant strategy to mitigate and suppress wildfire; working closely with male allies, the Xerente women also secured fire management tools and equipment to perform their tasks; and the Xerente women can serve as role models for other indigenous women claiming space for their voices and recognized actions on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Biography
PhD in Forest Resources and Conservation at University of Florida. 12+ years of experience working with tropical forest management and governance. Thorough experience fundraising and managing projects, publishing technical reports and academic articles, and coordinating multidisciplinary teams. Lived in 3 countries (Brazil, France, and USA), where acquired multicultural experience and empathy. Interested in forest conservation; integrated fire management; sustainable-use protected areas; participatory decision-making processes; community-based empowerment, women’s equity in the forest sector and integrated fire management.
Stephen Wong
University Of Alberta
PP108 - Trust and Compassion in Willingness to Share Mobility and Sheltering Resources in Wildfire Evacuations
Abstract
Advances in the sharing economy – such as transportation network companies (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and home sharing (e.g., Airbnb) – have coincided with the increasing need for evacuation resources. While peer-to-peer sharing under normal circumstances often suffers from trust barriers, disaster literature indicates that trust and compassion often increase following disasters, improving recovery efforts. We hypothesize that trust and compassion could trigger willingness to share transportation and sheltering resources during an evacuation.
To test this hypothesis, we distributed a survey to individuals impacted by the 2017 Southern California Wildfires (n=226) and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). We estimate binary logit choice models, finding that high trust in neighbors and strangers and high compassion levels significantly increase willingness to share across four sharing scenarios. Assuming a high trust/compassion population versus a low trust/compassion population results in a change of likelihood to share between 30% to 55%, depending on scenario. Variables related to departure timing and routing – which capture evacuation urgency – increase transportation sharing willingness. Volunteers in past disasters and members of community organizations are usually more likely to share, while families and previous evacuees are typically less likely. Significance of other demographic variables is highly dependent on the scenario. Spare seatbelts and bed capacity, while increasing willingness, were largely insignificant. These results suggest that future sharing economy strategies should cultivate trust and compassion before disasters via preparedness within neighborhoods, community-based organizations, and volunteer networks, during disasters through communication from officials, and after disasters using resilience-oriented and community-building information campaigns.
To test this hypothesis, we distributed a survey to individuals impacted by the 2017 Southern California Wildfires (n=226) and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). We estimate binary logit choice models, finding that high trust in neighbors and strangers and high compassion levels significantly increase willingness to share across four sharing scenarios. Assuming a high trust/compassion population versus a low trust/compassion population results in a change of likelihood to share between 30% to 55%, depending on scenario. Variables related to departure timing and routing – which capture evacuation urgency – increase transportation sharing willingness. Volunteers in past disasters and members of community organizations are usually more likely to share, while families and previous evacuees are typically less likely. Significance of other demographic variables is highly dependent on the scenario. Spare seatbelts and bed capacity, while increasing willingness, were largely insignificant. These results suggest that future sharing economy strategies should cultivate trust and compassion before disasters via preparedness within neighborhoods, community-based organizations, and volunteer networks, during disasters through communication from officials, and after disasters using resilience-oriented and community-building information campaigns.
Biography
Dr. Stephen Wong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Alberta and leads the Resilient and Sustainable Mobility and Evacuation (RESUME) Group. Dr. Wong’s research focuses on the intersection of disasters/emergencies, decision-making, and transportation and works to create more resilient, environmentally friendly, and equitable transportation systems. He is actively involved in resilience and young professional activities at the Transportation Research Board and evacuation research at the International Association for Fire Safety Science. Dr. Wong received his Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley in 2020.
Dr. Franziska Steinbruch
National Administration of Conservation Areas
PP110 - Integration of fire incident monitoring into enhanced law enforcement in Mozambique’s conservation areas
Abstract
The digital revolution is progressing in all spheres of societies, including in conservation area management. Mozambique’s network of conservation areas cover 233,249km2 of land corresponding to approximately 26 % of the country’s terrestrial surface. The size and remoteness of these areas set limitations to the effectiveness of conventional methods of field-based monitoring and response to any biodiversity-harming incidents. Wildfire are an annually recurring event that conservation area managers seek to mitigate with controlled early season burns. Resources are too scarce for fire suppression at scale. Therefore a different approach is followed to dealing with fire events.
Satellite sensor-based fire incident detection systems capable of pooling and categorizing records are increasingly utilized in support of law enforcement operations and biodiversity protection. The technology used in Mozambique is being developed by OroraTech GmbH, and the National Administration of Conservation Areas of Mozambique is experimenting with the platform as it evolves. Fire occurrence serve as proxy of human presence, while the intensity, duration and extent of fires are indicators of the purpose for which fires are deployed. The temporal and spatial precision of the wildfire detection algorithm in combination with the ability of distinguishing fires based on their nature enables managers to identify hotspots, plan field interventions well in advance, and allocate resources timely and location-based. The interception of unwanted human activities in conservation areas acts as a deterrent and while not stopping large wildfires, it contributes to the reduction of biodiversity loss. The authors will present examples that may inspire further innovations.
Satellite sensor-based fire incident detection systems capable of pooling and categorizing records are increasingly utilized in support of law enforcement operations and biodiversity protection. The technology used in Mozambique is being developed by OroraTech GmbH, and the National Administration of Conservation Areas of Mozambique is experimenting with the platform as it evolves. Fire occurrence serve as proxy of human presence, while the intensity, duration and extent of fires are indicators of the purpose for which fires are deployed. The temporal and spatial precision of the wildfire detection algorithm in combination with the ability of distinguishing fires based on their nature enables managers to identify hotspots, plan field interventions well in advance, and allocate resources timely and location-based. The interception of unwanted human activities in conservation areas acts as a deterrent and while not stopping large wildfires, it contributes to the reduction of biodiversity loss. The authors will present examples that may inspire further innovations.
Biography
https://mz.linkedin.com/in/franziska-steinbruch-3847a224
Ms Shelby Corning
International Institute Of Applied Systems Analysis
PP111 - Flammable Futures – A storyline of climatic and adaptation impacts on wildfire events in Indonesia
Abstract
Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic intervention. Predictions of future wildfire events and their impact on the environment and economy must consider interactions between these drivers. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area and agricultural production losses, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw production losses of palm oil – a product imported by the EU chiefly as a biofuel – surpassing 7%. We explored analogous events under three warming and two palm oil sector adaptation scenarios using two storylines: ensemble mean climate and high aridity conditions. We employed a model chain composed of IIASA's FLAM fire model and the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to predict burned area and assess resultant production losses in the oil palm sector in Indonesia. To quantify changes in burned area, we applied a delta approach based on the different degrees of expected global warming. To define fire-induced oil palm losses, we combined the burned areas from FLAM with land cover and productivity estimates from GLOBIOM. We found that total burned area and production loss increase across projections and climate warming by up to 25%, with minor differences between storylines. These results captured regional variation in climate characteristics and were robust across the ensembles. Results highlight the importance of considering future warming and drought conditions in oil palm losses and leave room to explore how climatic impacts can be mitigated through economic policies affecting Indonesia and the EU.
Biography
Shelby Corning is a researcher at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and a master's student in European forestry at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) in Vienna, Austria and University of Eastern Finland (UEF) in Joensuu, Finland. She received a bachelor's degree in environmental sciences from the University of Rochester in New York, USA. Her research is on wildfire risk and climate adaptation modeling, and the use of machine learning, remote sensing and cloud computing technology in forest disturbance detection. She's interested in wildfires, forest disturbances, and resource management in the context of climate change.