Wildfires pose a significant risk to societies across the world. This risk will likely increase in the future, due to climate change, urban development and changing demographics. Understanding the range of potential future conditions, and the associated key uncertainties, is essential in designing disaster risk management strategies that holistically account for these drivers.
For this purpose, we have developed a spatially explicit, dynamic, multi-hazard decision support system called UNHaRMED, which calculates dynamic risk profiles as a combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The aim of UNHaRMED is to better understand current and future risk, and assess the impact of (a combination) of risk reduction options under various future conditions. In order to do so, UNHaRMED consists of coupled models integrated into a policy support system. It allows the user to understand the impact of climate change, socio-economic developments and risk reduction options on the future evolution of exposure, hazard and vulnerability and hence the resulting risk.
The use of the system will be illustrated through an application to Greater and Peri-Urban Melbourne for wildfire risk, for which we simulated a range of futures using different climate and socio-economic scenarios. We found that in such a rapidly growing area, the impact of socio-economic development exceeds the impact of climate change, and spatial planning strategies can substantially reduce future wildfire risk.
The application of UNHaRMED showcases its use potential in future-proofing risk reduction strategies by assessing their impact under a range of plausible futures.

Firefighting activities contribute to the health burden of firefighters through repeated exposure to health hazardous pollutants via inhalation and dermal contact. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a large group of organic compounds released during fires, with known toxic and carcinogenic properties. So far, limited data is available regarding the contamination of firefighters´ skin during firefighting. This work compiles information regarding firefighters’ dermal exposure to PAHs and the related main health risks. Available literature showed the contamination of the neck (2.23–62.50 ng/cm2), wrists (0.37–8.30 ng/cm2), face (2.50–4.82 ng/cm2), and hands (1.59–4.69 ng/cm2), even with the adequate use of firefighting personal protective equipment. Some PAHs were found on the calf, scrotum, and back of firefighters. Also, levels of possible/probable carcinogenic PAHs ranged between 0.82–33.69 ng/cm2. Evidence suggests the topic permeation of PAHs and the promotion of skin inflammatory diseases. Occupational exposure as a firefighter causes melanoma in firefighters. Additional studies are needed to better characterize firefighters’ dermal exposure, evaluate the protectiveness of decontamination procedures, and contribute to diminishing firefighting risks.
Funding:
This work received fund through project PCIF/SSO/0090/2019 by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior (FCT-MCTES), through national funds.
Acknowledgements:
This work received support by UIDB/50006/2020, UIDP/50006/2020, LA/P/0008/2020, and PCIF/SSO/0017/2018 by FCT-MCTES. M. Oliveira and F. Rodrigues are thankful for the scientific contracts CEECIND/03666/2017 and CEECIND/01886/2020, respectively. G. Sousa thanks to the PhD grant 2021.08526.BD, supported by FCT-MCTES, Programa Por_Norte, and European Union through Fundo Social Europeu.

Fire-catalyzed forest transformations are now pervasive, eroding ecosystem resilience to future disturbance and altering function. Forecasting future fire activity and associated change is critical but complicated by inextricable links among climate, vegetation, and fire, leading to divergent expectations depending on how these relationships are represented in models. Area burned in western U.S. forests will continue to increase in response to a warming climate, but vegetation feedbacks to burn severity—where persistent fire-driven changes in vegetation structure and composition alter subsequent fire behavior—are unresolved. Our objectives were to 1) map the exposure of conifer forests to fire-regime change under 2 °C warming in global mean temperature; 2) characterize concomitant changes in burn severity; and 3) contextualize exposure with information about species' fire resistance. We develop a multivariate method to measure exposure by considering changes in productivity, burn severity, and fire frequency. We pair exposure estimates with an atlas of fire-resistant traits, which are a key source of adaptive capacity in fire-prone ecosystems. Some 96% of conifer forests will be exposed to fire-regime change. Changes in burn severity were negative across 63% of conifer forests. Exposure and fire resistance are not strongly related, therefore knowledge about both properties is necessary to understand ecosystems’ vulnerability to transformation. Dry, low-elevation forests and mesic subalpine forests are highly vulnerable to transformation, despite representing distinct portions of climate space. Our findings suggest climate-driven change in forests and the fire activity they support under a likely future scenario, motivating planned adaptation to protect valued characteristics of conifer forests.

The 2022 summer fire in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park is ranked among the largest in the Czech Republic with an affected area over 1000 ha. The FlamMap fire behavior model, developed in Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, was used to recreate this event to calibrate the model to Czech conditions, to investigate the fire behavior characteristics of this particular wildfire, and to evaluate scenarios of fire occurrence in different fuel types or under different fire weather conditions. The model allowed us to simulate fire conditions, propagation, and extent. We specifically focused on matching the observed fire perimeter and on fire behavior characteristics (spread rate, flame length, fireline intensity, etc.). The fire took place in a region of the National Park that was heavily affected by bark beetle infestation, hence a majority of the burned area was in dead spruce forest. The best FlamMap simulations of observed fire behavior and progression were compared with several created scenarios that differ in various input conditions. Scenarios included, for example, a fire in a healthy standing spruce forest, in clearcuts that are created after dead tree removal, or under different meteorological conditions (for example, changes in temperature and humidity). In this study we were able to calibrate and use FlamMap to recreate a historic wildfire in Central European conditions. We found that the fire would have spread to its perimeter even if standing dead trees were removed, but not if live spruce stands were present.

Wildfire risk (WFR) has been exacerbated across the world due to climate and land use changes, favoring more severe, damaging, and extreme wildfire events that put communities and values at risk not only in traditional fire-prone areas but also in unprecedented territories, with different socioeconomic, ecological and political implications. Especially, when WFR management policies centered on ignition control and fire suppression are being exceeded. Consequently, integrated approaches tackling the root causes related to fire spread capacity (hazard) as well as the creation of exposures and vulnerabilities become determinant. Beyond approaching wildfires as an emergency, WFR reduction needs to be integrated in all sectoral policies influencing risk “(de)construction” process, such as urban planning, bioeconomy, nature conservation, green energy or within touristic sector.
This research identifies the landscape of policies and initiatives under the European Green Deal (such as 3 Billion Trees Pledge initiative, Just Transition Mechanism, related EU Strategies or Nature Restoration Law proposal) influencing WFR in terms of hazard, exposure and vulnerability trade-offs, and analyses up to what extend they are aligned in a (in)coherent way for wildfire disaster risk reduction.
Results conclude that significant dysfunctions, but also potential synergies exist to move forward to integrated WFR management under a common policy frame supported by multi-stakeholders’ risk governance bodies. Key aspects that could be approached in a more coherent way along and across the initiatives and policies analyzed are suggested. Moreover, the method and results offer a general frame that may be downscaled from EU to national or regional level.

The Brazilian Cerrado is a biome adapted to the occurrence of natural fires; however, there are still gaps in the knowledge about the amount, behavior, and frequency of wildfires caused by lightning ignition. The objective of this study is to search for lightning-induced wildfires in Brazilian savannah-like Cerrado between 2015 to 2020. We search for the probable lightning candidates among all cloud-ground lightning strokes that occurred up to 72 h (3 days) before a fire detection and within 1 km of the ignition point detected for each active fire in remote sensing data, considering the location accuracy of both datasets. The results show that lightning candidates in the Cerrado represent only 0.2% of total active fires detected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, from 2015 to 2020. The results also address the electrical characteristics of the lightning candidates and explore the relationship between lightning-induced wildfires and aerosols. We conclude that the large number of fires detected over this period demonstrates that they are mostly of anthropic origin. Our results confirm that there is an urgent need to mitigate and develop strategies to manage and combat the impact of fire on society and ecosystems. These findings provide a useful tool to support local fire managers in decision-making regarding fire management and in identifying ignition sources of wildfires in protected areas.

Wildfires are becoming increasingly problematic around the world and it is apparent current strategies are not working to counter wildfire risks. The paper undertakes a global knowledge exchange, aiming to define the term ‘fire resilient landscape’. Qualitative methods were utilised to explore perceptions, within both science and practice, of fire resilient landscapes. A thematic analysis was undertaken on participant responses to extract the main themes characterising a fire resilient landscape. This analysis resulted in 5 main themes; acceptance and use of fire, management of the landscape, community engagement, loss avoidance and recovery. Following, the study exemplifies how these themes can counter wildfire risks by applying them to European case studies, in Catalonia and the Netherlands. This research contributes to an overall definition of a ‘fire resilient landscape’ according to the diverse (e.g., trans-disciplinary and holistic) application of the term appropriate for science and practice. By understanding the five main themes of fire resilient landscapes, we conclude that interventions surrounding these landscapes must be approached holistically, engaging with both environmental and social processes.

Censipam is a governmental agency that monitors extreme events in the Brazilian Amazon, receiving innumerous requests to identify most important active fires to be handled by firefighters. The goal here is to present the Fire Panel, a webgis application designed by Censipam to be used during a firefighting dispatch decision making across the Brazilian territory. As monitoring key, Fire Panel delivers a NRT fire tracking through a vector layer that is updated with every single satellite pass from 5 polar and geostationary satellites. Our methodology approaches spatial and temporal resolution separately. While polar satellites like NOAA-20, S-NPP, AQUA and TERRA are used to track the fire event vector perimeter, GOES-16 is added to increase temporal resolution. In addition, the Fire Panel has a severity level used to rank fire events in terms of fire combat. The spatial scope is being continually improved by the Censipam team and includes a mask for spurious areas and small fires (less than 1km²). The results show more than 110,000 fire events per year in the last 3 years around the country. In Amazonia region, 14% are updated using blended temporal resolution, especially medium to larger fire events that should be a concern in terms of combat. Even using blended temporal resolution, some problems between data acquisition and delivery time from webgis still is part of the challenge of earth observation systems applied to wildland fire.

Fire is a nationally and globally significant process that strongly affects human–dominated and wild landscapes. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our objective is to develop the world's first grid-based wildfire probability product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts.
We use multiple satellites and ancillary data to weigh the likelihood of fire, based on a number of sources that verify a fire burning in a grid and the level of confidence in the data source. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence than VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) active-fire detection data; and VIIRS active-fire detection data have a higher-level of confidence than MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active-fire detection data. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

The role of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) conditions on fire activity is still fairly unexplored in Brazil. A recent study has compiled existing literature on CDHW conditions over Brazil’s most important ecosystems, including the Amazon rainforest, the Pantanal wetlands, and the fire-prone savannas of Cerrado. While the Amazon and Pantanal have early evidence of these CDHW conditions and their impact on fire activity, Cerrado has yet to be studied. The study provided initial hints on what this relationship may look like for Cerrado, by studying four ecoregions with high yearly fire activity: Bico do Papagaio, Araguaia Tocantins, Bananal, and Alto Parnaíba. Using soil moisture (SM) from GLEAM v3.5a and maximum temperatures (Tmax) derived from the ERA5 reanalysis, along with burned area (BA) from MODIS MCD64A1 C6, yearly drought and heatwave conditions were evaluated and compared to BAs. Results show that high burning years fall above(below) the climatological median of Tmax(SM). Moreover, the top three burning years for each ecoregion are above the 75th percentile of the climatological series of a heatwave index (derived from Tmax and considering both temporal and spatial incidence). These preliminary results entail that there may be a positive relationship between CDHW conditions and fire in Cerrado, which levers new questions and concerns in the light of future climate change.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020, and PSSilva and JLGeirinhas are supported by FCT (grants SFRH/BD/146646/2019 and 2020.05198.BD, respectively).

In mainland Portugal, at the municipal level, the methodology to calculate fire hazard includes both probability of occurrence and susceptibility which, in turn, are calculated based on the historical burnt areas recorded, the slope, and land cover. However, when applied to eucalyptus stands, this methodology fails to account for the degree of stand management performed. The Navigator Company developed a fire hazard assessment scheme to support its annual fire management planning and its forest certification requirements. To better describe its silvicultural management practices, the land cover was related to the fuel models developed for Portugal by considering silviculture and geographical location. In the case of eucalypt stands, age and rotation length were also considered. Additionally, slope classes were redefined and a 20-year time series of burned areas were used to estimate probability. Results showed that 54% of the company’s plantation had a very-low to low fire hazard score, whereas if based on the official conjunctural hazard cartography, it would overestimate the hazard, with only 20% included in those classes. Furthermore, a trend towards more hazardous classes was observed, which is explained by the increase in the eucalyptus stands ages. This is not a valid result, as the higher the average age, the higher the salvage from fires since wood utilization will be higher in the case of forest fires. Using fuel models allowed us to characterize the different management scenarios applied by the company, enabling us to capture the impact of forest prevention measures on an annual basis.